2026 Housing Market Outlook: Stability Is Back — And Houston Buyers & Sellers Should Pay Attention

By Gabrielle Strout, Leading Luxury Agent in Cypress

Happy New Year! If 2025 felt confusing, unpredictable, or downright chaotic when it came to real estate, here’s the good news: the 2026 Housing Market Outlook is officially here — and the chaos is calming down.

Compass has just released its national 2026 Housing Market Outlook, built on real data, real trends, and real economic indicators — not guesswork, not headlines, and definitely not your neighbor’s opinion or a Zestimate.

According to the report, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of stability. Not dramatic booms. Not scary crashes. Just a more balanced, predictable market — and for many buyers and sellers, that’s exactly what they’ve been waiting for.

As a Top Realtor in Cypress, TX with 13 years experience, I want to break down what this actually means — nationally and locally — and how you can use it to your advantage.

Big Picture: 2026 Is a Year of Balance

The biggest headline from the Compass report is simple but powerful:

👉 The housing market is normalizing.

That means:

• No runaway price growth

• No collapse

• More rational decision-making

• Less emotional pressure

For both buyers and sellers, this creates opportunity — if you understand how to move strategically.

Home Prices Are Leveling Out

According to the Compass outlook, national home prices in 2026 are expected to be mostly flat, with projections around plus or minus 0.5%.

What does that mean in real terms?

• Prices are not free-falling

• But sellers can’t price like it’s 2021 anymore

Why This Matters

For sellers: Pricing correctly from the start matters more than ever. Overpricing leads to longer days on market and price reductions.
For buyers: You’re no longer chasing runaway prices — the market is finally giving you room to breathe.

This is where working with the Best real estate agent in Cypress, TX becomes critical. Strategy beats guesswork in a stable market.

Inventory Is Growing (Finally)

Inventory is projected to grow about 10% nationally in 2026 — and that’s a big shift.

This doesn’t mean the market is flooded with homes. What it does mean is:

• Fewer bidding wars

• More options for buyers

• Real negotiations are back

As a relocation specialist in Cypress, TX, I’m already seeing this play out locally — especially in suburban areas where buyers finally have choices again.

Mortgage Rates Are Trending Lower

Compass projects mortgage rates to land roughly between 5.9% and 6.4%.

Not pandemic-era cheap — but enough to get the market moving again.

Even more important?
The long-standing rate lock-in effect (where homeowners refused to sell because they had low rates) is starting to fade. That means more sellers are willing to list, which supports growing inventory.

Affordability Is Gradually Improving

This is the part buyers have been waiting for.

Affordability isn’t improving because prices crashed — it’s improving because:

• Incomes are rising

• Inventory is normalizing

• The market is acting rational again

As a 5-star real estate agent in Cypress, TX, I can tell you this kind of environment favors informed, prepared buyers — not rushed decisions.

Houston’s 2026 Outlook: Stable, Strategic, and Still Attractive

While national trends matter, Houston has its own rhythm — driven by job growth, in-migration, and affordability.

Houston didn’t experience the extreme price spikes seen in coastal cities, which means we’re entering 2026 from a more balanced starting point.

What That Looks Like Locally

• Well-priced homes are selling

• Overpriced homes are sitting

• Fewer emotional bidding wars

• More rational negotiations

Inventory in Houston: Growing — But Uneven

Inventory is rising across Houston, but not evenly.

• Suburban areas like Cypress, Katy, and The Woodlands are seeing more options

• Inner-loop and walkable neighborhoods remain tighter

• New construction is competing heavily with resale homes

Seller takeaway: You’re no longer just competing with your neighbor — you’re competing with builders, incentives, and move-in-ready homes.

This is where working with the Number one real estate agent in Cypress, TX and an award-winning Realtor in Cypress, TX makes a real difference.

Houston’s Secret Weapon: Affordability

Even as affordability improves nationally, Houston remains one of the most affordable large metros in the U.S. relative to income.

That’s why Houston continues to attract:

• Relocations

• Corporate transfers

• Investors

• Buyers priced out of Austin, California, and the Northeast

As a leading luxury agent in Cypress, I see this demand firsthand — and it’s why Houston’s market remains resilient.

What This Means Right Now

🏡 For Buyers

• More inventory = more negotiating power

• Fewer bidding wars = better inspections and terms

• 2026 favors prepared buyers, not rushed ones

🏷️ For Sellers

• Pricing strategy matters more than ever

• Presentation and condition are non-negotiable

• “Test the market” pricing is no longer effective

Final Thoughts

The 2026 housing market is shaping up to be stable, strategic, and opportunity-driven — especially in Houston and Cypress.

If you want the full Compass 2026 Housing Market Outlook, DM me “2026” and I’ll send it to you.

And if you want to talk about how this data applies specifically to Cypress, Houston, or your neighborhood, let’s connect. National stats are helpful — but local strategy wins deals.

Happy New Year. Let’s make smart moves in 2026.

Written by : Gabrielle Strout
Best Real Estate Agent in Cypress, TX | Relocation Specialist | Award-Winning Realtor | Leading Luxury Agent